NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNLV AFA
Points 73.9 61.8
Total Points   135.7
Points From 2-Pointers 37.9 26.0
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 26.0
Points From Free Throws 17.2 9.8
Shooting UNLV AFA
Field Goals Made 25.2 21.7
Field Goals Attempted 49.7 52.1
Field Goal % 50.7% 41.6%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 13.0
2 Pointers Attempted 33.5 26.3
2 Point Shooting % 56.6% 49.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 16.2 25.8
3 Point Shooting % 38.5% 33.7%
Free Throws Made 17.2 9.8
Free Throws Attempted 23.6 14.2
Free Throw % 73.0% 68.7%
Ball Control UNLV AFA
Rebounds 33.7 26.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 18.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 8.1
Turnovers 9.6 11.7
Blocked Shots 4.2 3.6
Steals 5.1 5.6
Fouls 13.2 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: UNLV

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNLV AFA
Total Possessions 64.3
Effective Scoring Chances 64.0 60.7
% of Possessions with UNLV AFA
2 Point Attempt 44.7% 35.6%
3 Point Attempt 21.6% 34.8%
Player Fouled 24.7% 20.6%
Turnover 14.9% 18.2%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNLV AFA
Shot Blocked 7.0% 8.5%
Offensive Rebound 32.9% 24.9%