NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNLV CSU
Points 66.2 69.4
Total Points   135.6
Points From 2-Pointers 35.8 36.4
Points From 3-Pointers 15.9 20.2
Points From Free Throws 14.5 12.8
Shooting UNLV CSU
Field Goals Made 23.2 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 54.0 54.4
Field Goal % 43.0% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.6 32.6
2 Point Shooting % 47.6% 55.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 16.4 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 30.9%
Free Throws Made 14.5 12.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.9 17.2
Free Throw % 73.0% 74.7%
Ball Control UNLV CSU
Rebounds 32.9 32.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 8.0
Turnovers 9.6 9.8
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.0
Steals 4.5 5.1
Fouls 14.4 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Colorado St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNLV CSU
Total Possessions 66.5
Effective Scoring Chances 66.2 64.7
% of Possessions with UNLV CSU
2 Point Attempt 48.9% 43.1%
3 Point Attempt 21.3% 28.7%
Player Fouled 22.7% 21.6%
Turnover 14.4% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNLV CSU
Shot Blocked 5.6% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 27.4% 25.3%