NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MISS ARK
Points 77.4 76.0
Total Points   153.4
Points From 2-Pointers 38.6 38.7
Points From 3-Pointers 19.7 17.1
Points From Free Throws 19.1 20.1
Shooting MISS ARK
Field Goals Made 25.9 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 56.5
Field Goal % 43.3% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 19.3 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 41.4 39.3
2 Point Shooting % 46.6% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 18.3 17.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 19.1 20.1
Free Throws Attempted 26.1 26.2
Free Throw % 73.0% 76.5%
Ball Control MISS ARK
Rebounds 35.9 36.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 9.4
Turnovers 9.6 11.5
Blocked Shots 4.3 3.8
Steals 6.7 5.5
Fouls 17.7 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: Mississippi

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MISS ARK
Total Possessions 74.2
Effective Scoring Chances 75.3 72.1
% of Possessions with MISS ARK
2 Point Attempt 47.9% 46.1%
3 Point Attempt 21.2% 20.2%
Player Fouled 23.5% 23.8%
Turnover 12.9% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MISS ARK
Shot Blocked 6.9% 7.4%
Offensive Rebound 28.3% 27.1%