NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNLV SJSU
Points 76.3 63.5
Total Points   139.8
Points From 2-Pointers 39.7 31.4
Points From 3-Pointers 20.8 23.9
Points From Free Throws 15.8 8.2
Shooting UNLV SJSU
Field Goals Made 26.8 23.7
Field Goals Attempted 54.0 57.1
Field Goal % 49.6% 41.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 15.7
2 Pointers Attempted 36.4 32.1
2 Point Shooting % 54.5% 49.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 17.6 25.1
3 Point Shooting % 39.6% 31.8%
Free Throws Made 15.8 8.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 11.9
Free Throw % 73.0% 68.6%
Ball Control UNLV SJSU
Rebounds 37.1 28.5
Rebounds - Defensive 27.7 21.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 7.5
Turnovers 8.9 9.9
Blocked Shots 3.8 3.1
Steals 4.1 4.3
Fouls 11.7 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: San Jose St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNLV SJSU
Total Possessions 66.5
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 64.0
% of Possessions with UNLV SJSU
2 Point Attempt 47.2% 42.5%
3 Point Attempt 22.7% 33.2%
Player Fouled 22.5% 17.6%
Turnover 13.4% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNLV SJSU
Shot Blocked 5.6% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 31.0% 21.2%