NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNLV KSU
Points 69.3 68.3
Total Points   137.6
Points From 2-Pointers 35.6 32.3
Points From 3-Pointers 17.0 20.5
Points From Free Throws 16.8 15.4
Shooting UNLV KSU
Field Goals Made 23.5 23.0
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 54.7
Field Goal % 41.0% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 16.2
2 Pointers Attempted 38.6 32.2
2 Point Shooting % 46.1% 50.2%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 18.7 22.5
3 Point Shooting % 30.3% 30.3%
Free Throws Made 16.8 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 21.5
Free Throw % 73.0% 71.9%
Ball Control UNLV KSU
Rebounds 33.9 38.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.1 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 11.7
Turnovers 9.4 13.1
Blocked Shots 4.6 3.9
Steals 6.5 4.8
Fouls 15.2 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: UNLV

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNLV KSU
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 71.1 68.2
% of Possessions with UNLV KSU
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 38.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.8% 27.1%
Player Fouled 22.8% 21.8%
Turnover 13.5% 18.8%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNLV KSU
Shot Blocked 7.2% 8.1%
Offensive Rebound 29.2% 33.7%