NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SFPA MORG
Points 71.4 72.6
Total Points   144.1
Points From 2-Pointers 37.4 45.9
Points From 3-Pointers 19.7 11.0
Points From Free Throws 14.4 15.7
Shooting SFPA MORG
Field Goals Made 25.3 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.0 57.3
Field Goal % 44.3% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 23.0
2 Pointers Attempted 38.4 44.0
2 Point Shooting % 48.7% 52.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 3.7
3 Pointers Attempted 18.6 13.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 27.7%
Free Throws Made 14.4 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 23.9 20.8
Free Throw % 60.1% 75.2%
Ball Control SFPA MORG
Rebounds 36.2 34.1
Rebounds - Defensive 22.9 23.9
Rebounds - Offensive 13.3 10.3
Turnovers 12.2 11.5
Blocked Shots 4.5 4.2
Steals 6.0 5.5
Fouls 15.0 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Morgan St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SFPA MORG
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 72.1 69.8
% of Possessions with SFPA MORG
2 Point Attempt 44.6% 52.9%
3 Point Attempt 21.7% 15.9%
Player Fouled 23.0% 21.1%
Turnover 17.2% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken SFPA MORG
Shot Blocked 7.5% 8.0%
Offensive Rebound 35.7% 31.0%