NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SFPA MORG
Points 78.1 68.9
Total Points   147.0
Points From 2-Pointers 37.6 40.2
Points From 3-Pointers 19.8 14.7
Points From Free Throws 20.7 13.9
Shooting SFPA MORG
Field Goals Made 25.4 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 56.4 59.4
Field Goal % 45.0% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 20.1
2 Pointers Attempted 37.5 42.1
2 Point Shooting % 50.1% 47.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 4.9
3 Pointers Attempted 18.9 17.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 28.4%
Free Throws Made 20.7 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 27.7 20.1
Free Throw % 74.7% 69.5%
Ball Control SFPA MORG
Rebounds 34.5 38.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 13.1
Turnovers 10.8 14.0
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.3
Steals 6.6 4.3
Fouls 15.4 19.6

Playing Style Advantage: Morgan St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SFPA MORG
Total Possessions 73.7
Effective Scoring Chances 72.8 72.8
% of Possessions with SFPA MORG
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 47.8%
3 Point Attempt 22.1% 19.7%
Player Fouled 26.6% 20.8%
Turnover 14.6% 19.0%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken SFPA MORG
Shot Blocked 7.4% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 28.5% 34.8%