NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SFPA OHIO
Points 62.0 80.9
Total Points   142.9
Points From 2-Pointers 31.3 36.8
Points From 3-Pointers 19.0 27.0
Points From Free Throws 11.7 17.1
Shooting SFPA OHIO
Field Goals Made 22.0 27.4
Field Goals Attempted 55.3 56.1
Field Goal % 39.8% 48.9%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 36.9 32.3
2 Point Shooting % 42.4% 57.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 18.4 23.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 37.8%
Free Throws Made 11.7 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 19.4 23.1
Free Throw % 60.1% 74.1%
Ball Control SFPA OHIO
Rebounds 34.3 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 22.3 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.0 9.6
Turnovers 13.2 8.6
Blocked Shots 3.8 5.0
Steals 4.3 6.3
Fouls 17.0 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: St Fran (PA)

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SFPA OHIO
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 67.6 69.8
% of Possessions with SFPA OHIO
2 Point Attempt 44.6% 40.4%
3 Point Attempt 22.2% 29.8%
Player Fouled 20.3% 24.7%
Turnover 19.2% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken SFPA OHIO
Shot Blocked 9.2% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 32.1% 30.1%