NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SFPA UVA
Points 48.4 72.5
Total Points   120.9
Points From 2-Pointers 24.0 41.1
Points From 3-Pointers 16.6 20.0
Points From Free Throws 7.8 11.4
Shooting SFPA UVA
Field Goals Made 17.5 27.2
Field Goals Attempted 53.1 56.1
Field Goal % 33.0% 48.6%
2 Pointers Made 12.0 20.6
2 Pointers Attempted 33.3 38.5
2 Point Shooting % 36.0% 53.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.9 17.6
3 Point Shooting % 27.9% 37.9%
Free Throws Made 7.8 11.4
Free Throws Attempted 13.0 18.3
Free Throw % 60.1% 62.1%
Ball Control SFPA UVA
Rebounds 32.6 37.4
Rebounds - Defensive 22.7 27.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 10.0
Turnovers 13.0 6.6
Blocked Shots 3.3 7.9
Steals 3.8 6.9
Fouls 13.6 11.2

Playing Style Advantage: Virginia

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SFPA UVA
Total Possessions 63.4
Effective Scoring Chances 60.4 66.9
% of Possessions with SFPA UVA
2 Point Attempt 43.5% 51.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.0% 23.5%
Player Fouled 17.7% 21.5%
Turnover 20.4% 10.3%
Opponent Steal 10.8% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken SFPA UVA
Shot Blocked 14.3% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 26.6% 30.6%