NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SFPA RMU
Points 66.8 75.5
Total Points   142.2
Points From 2-Pointers 35.2 35.7
Points From 3-Pointers 18.8 26.5
Points From Free Throws 12.8 13.4
Shooting SFPA RMU
Field Goals Made 23.9 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 58.9
Field Goal % 42.6% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.8 34.0
2 Point Shooting % 46.6% 52.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 18.2 24.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 12.8 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.3 19.1
Free Throw % 60.1% 69.8%
Ball Control SFPA RMU
Rebounds 32.9 39.3
Rebounds - Defensive 22.0 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 13.4
Turnovers 10.9 11.0
Blocked Shots 3.1 4.0
Steals 5.2 4.7
Fouls 14.3 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Rob Morris

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SFPA RMU
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 69.0 71.4
% of Possessions with SFPA RMU
2 Point Attempt 46.4% 40.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.4% 29.7%
Player Fouled 22.1% 20.7%
Turnover 15.7% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken SFPA RMU
Shot Blocked 6.9% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 29.5% 37.8%