NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SFPA AMER
Points 63.2 70.9
Total Points   134.1
Points From 2-Pointers 31.4 33.6
Points From 3-Pointers 21.8 25.0
Points From Free Throws 10.0 12.4
Shooting SFPA AMER
Field Goals Made 23.0 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 51.5 52.1
Field Goal % 44.6% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 32.0 29.4
2 Point Shooting % 49.1% 57.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 19.5 22.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.3% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 10.0 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 17.3
Free Throw % 60.1% 71.6%
Ball Control SFPA AMER
Rebounds 29.8 32.3
Rebounds - Defensive 20.8 23.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 8.9
Turnovers 10.8 10.1
Blocked Shots 2.9 1.8
Steals 4.5 5.2
Fouls 15.5 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: St Fran (PA)

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SFPA AMER
Total Possessions 64.0
Effective Scoring Chances 62.3 62.9
% of Possessions with SFPA AMER
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 39.7%
3 Point Attempt 26.4% 30.7%
Player Fouled 22.7% 24.3%
Turnover 16.8% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SFPA AMER
Shot Blocked 3.5% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.9% 30.1%