NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SFPA MSM
Points 62.6 76.4
Total Points   139.0
Points From 2-Pointers 32.4 43.3
Points From 3-Pointers 19.5 21.0
Points From Free Throws 10.7 12.2
Shooting SFPA MSM
Field Goals Made 22.7 28.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 56.8
Field Goal % 39.7% 50.4%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 21.6
2 Pointers Attempted 38.0 37.7
2 Point Shooting % 42.6% 57.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 10.7 12.2
Free Throws Attempted 17.8 16.9
Free Throw % 60.1% 71.9%
Ball Control SFPA MSM
Rebounds 30.9 38.0
Rebounds - Defensive 20.5 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 10.2
Turnovers 11.8 12.1
Blocked Shots 3.3 5.1
Steals 6.9 6.0
Fouls 14.2 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: Mt St Marys

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SFPA MSM
Total Possessions 69.4
Effective Scoring Chances 67.9 67.5
% of Possessions with SFPA MSM
2 Point Attempt 46.5% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 23.5% 23.6%
Player Fouled 19.1% 20.4%
Turnover 17.0% 17.4%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 10.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SFPA MSM
Shot Blocked 9.2% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 27.2% 33.2%