NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SFPA PITT
Points 54.2 85.3
Total Points   139.5
Points From 2-Pointers 27.5 39.1
Points From 3-Pointers 17.2 29.7
Points From Free Throws 9.6 16.5
Shooting SFPA PITT
Field Goals Made 19.5 29.4
Field Goals Attempted 53.9 58.0
Field Goal % 36.1% 50.7%
2 Pointers Made 13.7 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 34.1 33.4
2 Point Shooting % 40.3% 58.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 9.9
3 Pointers Attempted 19.8 24.7
3 Point Shooting % 28.9% 40.2%
Free Throws Made 9.6 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 16.0 22.6
Free Throw % 60.1% 73.0%
Ball Control SFPA PITT
Rebounds 28.6 40.6
Rebounds - Defensive 20.3 28.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 11.8
Turnovers 12.4 6.8
Blocked Shots 2.9 6.8
Steals 3.5 6.4
Fouls 16.6 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Pittsburgh

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SFPA PITT
Total Possessions 66.7
Effective Scoring Chances 62.7 71.6
% of Possessions with SFPA PITT
2 Point Attempt 43.8% 41.9%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 31.0%
Player Fouled 19.5% 24.8%
Turnover 18.5% 10.2%
Opponent Steal 9.6% 5.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken SFPA PITT
Shot Blocked 12.0% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 22.5% 36.8%