NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SFPA STONE
Points 70.7 67.9
Total Points   138.6
Points From 2-Pointers 33.7 32.5
Points From 3-Pointers 26.0 25.3
Points From Free Throws 11.0 10.1
Shooting SFPA STONE
Field Goals Made 25.5 24.7
Field Goals Attempted 57.5 55.9
Field Goal % 44.4% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 16.2
2 Pointers Attempted 33.5 30.2
2 Point Shooting % 50.3% 53.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.7 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 24.0 25.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.1% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 11.0 10.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 14.6
Free Throw % 60.1% 69.1%
Ball Control SFPA STONE
Rebounds 38.4 31.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 7.1
Turnovers 11.3 11.4
Blocked Shots 4.2 2.9
Steals 6.0 5.6
Fouls 14.1 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: St Fran (PA)

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SFPA STONE
Total Possessions 68.7
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 64.3
% of Possessions with SFPA STONE
2 Point Attempt 40.9% 39.0%
3 Point Attempt 29.3% 33.1%
Player Fouled 19.7% 20.5%
Turnover 16.5% 16.6%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken SFPA STONE
Shot Blocked 5.3% 7.4%
Offensive Rebound 33.4% 21.2%