NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SFPA
Points 61.8 64.8
Total Points   126.5
Points From 2-Pointers 33.6 30.1
Points From 3-Pointers 16.7 21.2
Points From Free Throws 11.5 13.5
Shooting SFPA
Field Goals Made 22.4 22.1
Field Goals Attempted 54.5 54.6
Field Goal % 41.0% 40.5%
2 Pointers Made 16.8 15.1
2 Pointers Attempted 40.7 36.4
2 Point Shooting % 41.2% 41.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 13.8 18.1
3 Point Shooting % 40.4% 38.9%
Free Throws Made 11.5 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 19.6
Free Throw % 60.1% 68.9%
Ball Control SFPA
Rebounds 35.4 36.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 11.8
Turnovers 12.6 11.8
Blocked Shots 3.7 6.2
Steals 5.1 6.3
Fouls 15.7 13.9

Playing Style Advantage:

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SFPA
Total Possessions 67.1
Effective Scoring Chances 66.0 67.1
% of Possessions with SFPA
2 Point Attempt 50.3% 45.3%
3 Point Attempt 17.0% 22.6%
Player Fouled 20.7% 23.3%
Turnover 18.7% 17.6%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken SFPA
Shot Blocked 11.5% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 32.0% 33.1%