NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TTU PROV
Points 70.5 70.7
Total Points   141.2
Points From 2-Pointers 33.2 33.1
Points From 3-Pointers 23.3 25.0
Points From Free Throws 14.0 12.7
Shooting TTU PROV
Field Goals Made 24.4 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 59.1 56.7
Field Goal % 41.2% 43.9%
2 Pointers Made 16.6 16.5
2 Pointers Attempted 37.7 30.1
2 Point Shooting % 44.1% 54.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 21.4 26.6
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 31.4%
Free Throws Made 14.0 12.7
Free Throws Attempted 17.8 17.0
Free Throw % 78.5% 74.5%
Ball Control TTU PROV
Rebounds 34.4 36.2
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 26.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 9.4
Turnovers 9.4 11.1
Blocked Shots 2.0 4.0
Steals 6.1 4.9
Fouls 14.3 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Texas Tech

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TTU PROV
Total Possessions 69.4
Effective Scoring Chances 69.6 67.7
% of Possessions with TTU PROV
2 Point Attempt 46.7% 37.8%
3 Point Attempt 26.6% 33.4%
Player Fouled 20.7% 20.6%
Turnover 13.6% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken TTU PROV
Shot Blocked 7.1% 3.4%
Offensive Rebound 26.3% 27.4%