NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SJU BUT
Points 80.5 72.9
Total Points   153.5
Points From 2-Pointers 49.4 34.2
Points From 3-Pointers 20.2 23.7
Points From Free Throws 10.9 15.0
Shooting SJU BUT
Field Goals Made 31.4 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 67.5 59.7
Field Goal % 46.5% 41.9%
2 Pointers Made 24.7 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 46.8 38.2
2 Point Shooting % 52.8% 44.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.4% 36.8%
Free Throws Made 10.9 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 14.8 18.7
Free Throw % 74.2% 80.1%
Ball Control SJU BUT
Rebounds 41.1 33.0
Rebounds - Defensive 27.3 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 13.7 8.6
Turnovers 9.1 11.3
Blocked Shots 6.4 2.2
Steals 7.1 5.3
Fouls 15.2 12.0

Playing Style Advantage: Butler

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SJU BUT
Total Possessions 72.7
Effective Scoring Chances 77.3 70.0
% of Possessions with SJU BUT
2 Point Attempt 53.6% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 23.7% 25.6%
Player Fouled 16.4% 20.9%
Turnover 12.6% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 9.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken SJU BUT
Shot Blocked 3.9% 9.6%
Offensive Rebound 36.0% 23.8%