NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SJU ISU
Points 69.4 71.4
Total Points   140.8
Points From 2-Pointers 35.6 37.6
Points From 3-Pointers 19.9 18.7
Points From Free Throws 13.8 15.0
Shooting SJU ISU
Field Goals Made 24.5 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 59.6
Field Goal % 43.6% 42.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 33.9 42.5
2 Point Shooting % 52.5% 44.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 17.1
3 Point Shooting % 30.0% 36.5%
Free Throws Made 13.8 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 18.6 21.4
Free Throw % 74.2% 70.4%
Ball Control SJU ISU
Rebounds 38.7 33.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 21.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.9 11.7
Turnovers 13.7 9.5
Blocked Shots 5.7 2.6
Steals 5.2 8.9
Fouls 16.6 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: St Johns

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SJU ISU
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 68.8 72.0
% of Possessions with SJU ISU
2 Point Attempt 40.6% 50.8%
3 Point Attempt 26.5% 20.5%
Player Fouled 20.1% 23.8%
Turnover 19.7% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 12.7% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken SJU ISU
Shot Blocked 4.5% 10.2%
Offensive Rebound 37.6% 31.2%