NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SJU MARQ
Points 74.8 76.6
Total Points   151.4
Points From 2-Pointers 39.7 38.4
Points From 3-Pointers 22.6 25.7
Points From Free Throws 12.4 12.5
Shooting SJU MARQ
Field Goals Made 27.4 27.8
Field Goals Attempted 63.5 59.9
Field Goal % 43.2% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 40.3 37.8
2 Point Shooting % 49.3% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 23.2 22.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.5% 38.6%
Free Throws Made 12.4 12.5
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 18.1
Free Throw % 74.2% 69.1%
Ball Control SJU MARQ
Rebounds 40.8 32.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 23.4
Rebounds - Offensive 15.0 9.0
Turnovers 11.4 10.2
Blocked Shots 5.0 2.8
Steals 5.5 7.3
Fouls 14.8 12.4

Playing Style Advantage: St Johns

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SJU MARQ
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 74.9 70.3
% of Possessions with SJU MARQ
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 26.5% 26.9%
Player Fouled 17.3% 20.7%
Turnover 16.0% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 10.2% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken SJU MARQ
Shot Blocked 4.8% 8.0%
Offensive Rebound 39.0% 25.9%