NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SJU CONN
Points 65.0 78.7
Total Points   143.7
Points From 2-Pointers 36.0 38.7
Points From 3-Pointers 14.8 23.4
Points From Free Throws 14.2 16.6
Shooting SJU CONN
Field Goals Made 22.9 27.2
Field Goals Attempted 61.3 58.6
Field Goal % 37.4% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 44.3 37.2
2 Point Shooting % 40.6% 52.0%
3 Pointers Made 4.9 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 17.0 21.3
3 Point Shooting % 28.9% 36.5%
Free Throws Made 14.2 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 22.1
Free Throw % 74.2% 75.1%
Ball Control SJU CONN
Rebounds 34.8 40.1
Rebounds - Defensive 22.1 28.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.7 12.0
Turnovers 8.6 9.2
Blocked Shots 4.6 4.1
Steals 4.9 5.3
Fouls 16.1 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SJU CONN
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 72.9 71.7
% of Possessions with SJU CONN
2 Point Attempt 53.3% 45.0%
3 Point Attempt 20.5% 25.8%
Player Fouled 20.3% 23.4%
Turnover 12.5% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken SJU CONN
Shot Blocked 7.1% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 31.2% 35.3%