NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SJU XAV
Points 81.2 73.2
Total Points   154.4
Points From 2-Pointers 48.5 36.1
Points From 3-Pointers 18.3 19.2
Points From Free Throws 14.4 17.9
Shooting SJU XAV
Field Goals Made 30.4 24.5
Field Goals Attempted 65.1 60.4
Field Goal % 46.7% 40.5%
2 Pointers Made 24.2 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 46.2 42.7
2 Point Shooting % 52.5% 42.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 18.9 17.7
3 Point Shooting % 32.4% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 14.4 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.4 23.6
Free Throw % 74.2% 75.8%
Ball Control SJU XAV
Rebounds 40.1 35.7
Rebounds - Defensive 26.8 24.3
Rebounds - Offensive 13.2 11.4
Turnovers 9.3 11.3
Blocked Shots 7.8 2.4
Steals 5.8 5.9
Fouls 17.2 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: St Johns

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SJU XAV
Total Possessions 73.5
Effective Scoring Chances 77.5 73.6
% of Possessions with SJU XAV
2 Point Attempt 52.7% 48.5%
3 Point Attempt 21.5% 20.2%
Player Fouled 19.4% 23.4%
Turnover 12.6% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken SJU XAV
Shot Blocked 4.2% 12.0%
Offensive Rebound 35.2% 29.7%