NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SJU VILL
Points 72.0 68.9
Total Points   140.9
Points From 2-Pointers 38.0 28.4
Points From 3-Pointers 22.9 26.4
Points From Free Throws 11.1 14.1
Shooting SJU VILL
Field Goals Made 26.6 23.0
Field Goals Attempted 61.2 56.8
Field Goal % 43.5% 40.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 14.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.3 31.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.9% 44.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.8 25.0
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 11.1 14.1
Free Throws Attempted 15.0 17.7
Free Throw % 74.2% 79.7%
Ball Control SJU VILL
Rebounds 38.2 33.4
Rebounds - Defensive 27.5 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 7.5
Turnovers 8.6 9.9
Blocked Shots 6.4 1.9
Steals 5.5 5.2
Fouls 14.4 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: Villanova

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SJU VILL
Total Possessions 68.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.8 66.2
% of Possessions with SJU VILL
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 40.4%
3 Point Attempt 29.7% 31.7%
Player Fouled 19.3% 20.9%
Turnover 12.6% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SJU VILL
Shot Blocked 3.5% 10.5%
Offensive Rebound 29.1% 21.4%