NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARST MOSU
Points 74.6 76.9
Total Points   151.5
Points From 2-Pointers 34.5 45.0
Points From 3-Pointers 28.2 17.6
Points From Free Throws 11.9 14.3
Shooting ARST MOSU
Field Goals Made 26.7 28.4
Field Goals Attempted 68.1 61.6
Field Goal % 39.1% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 22.5
2 Pointers Attempted 39.3 44.0
2 Point Shooting % 43.9% 51.1%
3 Pointers Made 9.4 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 28.9 17.7
3 Point Shooting % 32.6% 33.3%
Free Throws Made 11.9 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 16.9 20.4
Free Throw % 70.2% 70.3%
Ball Control ARST MOSU
Rebounds 39.1 40.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 30.3
Rebounds - Offensive 13.3 10.5
Turnovers 7.2 8.8
Blocked Shots 5.2 5.3
Steals 4.8 3.8
Fouls 14.8 12.4

Playing Style Advantage: Missouri St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARST MOSU
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 77.6 73.2
% of Possessions with ARST MOSU
2 Point Attempt 45.2% 52.3%
3 Point Attempt 33.2% 21.0%
Player Fouled 17.3% 20.8%
Turnover 10.1% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 5.2% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARST MOSU
Shot Blocked 8.8% 7.9%
Offensive Rebound 30.6% 28.9%