NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARST CCU
Points 84.6 74.1
Total Points   158.8
Points From 2-Pointers 34.0 44.1
Points From 3-Pointers 35.7 16.6
Points From Free Throws 14.9 13.4
Shooting ARST CCU
Field Goals Made 28.9 27.6
Field Goals Attempted 67.8 61.6
Field Goal % 42.6% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 22.1
2 Pointers Attempted 32.3 45.7
2 Point Shooting % 52.5% 48.3%
3 Pointers Made 11.9 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 35.4 15.9
3 Point Shooting % 33.6% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 14.9 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.3 19.3
Free Throw % 70.2% 69.4%
Ball Control ARST CCU
Rebounds 41.8 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 27.6 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 14.2 9.3
Turnovers 7.1 10.2
Blocked Shots 5.0 3.0
Steals 6.3 4.5
Fouls 14.4 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: Coastal Car

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARST CCU
Total Possessions 73.6
Effective Scoring Chances 80.7 72.7
% of Possessions with ARST CCU
2 Point Attempt 36.3% 53.8%
3 Point Attempt 39.8% 18.7%
Player Fouled 18.1% 19.5%
Turnover 9.6% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARST CCU
Shot Blocked 4.9% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 33.5% 25.3%