NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARST MORE
Points 71.7 76.4
Total Points   148.1
Points From 2-Pointers 36.0 40.1
Points From 3-Pointers 22.0 24.0
Points From Free Throws 13.6 12.4
Shooting ARST MORE
Field Goals Made 25.3 28.0
Field Goals Attempted 61.5 59.0
Field Goal % 41.2% 47.5%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 20.0
2 Pointers Attempted 38.7 37.9
2 Point Shooting % 46.6% 52.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 22.9 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 32.1% 37.9%
Free Throws Made 13.6 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 16.9
Free Throw % 70.2% 73.2%
Ball Control ARST MORE
Rebounds 35.3 37.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 9.7
Turnovers 7.9 9.5
Blocked Shots 3.7 4.7
Steals 4.9 4.9
Fouls 13.6 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: Morehead St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARST MORE
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 72.8 69.2
% of Possessions with ARST MORE
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 47.3%
3 Point Attempt 27.7% 26.4%
Player Fouled 19.8% 19.7%
Turnover 11.4% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARST MORE
Shot Blocked 8.1% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 30.1% 29.3%