NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARST UTA
Points 78.2 81.0
Total Points   159.1
Points From 2-Pointers 33.7 40.0
Points From 3-Pointers 27.1 23.1
Points From Free Throws 17.4 17.8
Shooting ARST UTA
Field Goals Made 25.9 27.7
Field Goals Attempted 61.2 59.5
Field Goal % 42.3% 46.6%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 20.0
2 Pointers Attempted 35.5 38.6
2 Point Shooting % 47.5% 51.8%
3 Pointers Made 9.0 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 25.7 20.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 17.4 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 24.7 24.2
Free Throw % 70.2% 73.6%
Ball Control ARST UTA
Rebounds 36.8 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 12.6 11.0
Turnovers 10.5 11.0
Blocked Shots 4.6 4.5
Steals 5.2 6.0
Fouls 17.5 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: TX-Arlington

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARST UTA
Total Possessions 74.0
Effective Scoring Chances 76.2 74.0
% of Possessions with ARST UTA
2 Point Attempt 40.1% 44.5%
3 Point Attempt 29.1% 24.0%
Player Fouled 22.8% 23.7%
Turnover 14.2% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARST UTA
Shot Blocked 7.6% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 32.2% 31.2%