NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARST APP
Points 71.6 80.3
Total Points   151.8
Points From 2-Pointers 36.2 50.5
Points From 3-Pointers 24.8 16.8
Points From Free Throws 10.6 12.9
Shooting ARST APP
Field Goals Made 26.4 30.9
Field Goals Attempted 71.0 63.8
Field Goal % 37.2% 48.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.1 25.2
2 Pointers Attempted 45.4 48.4
2 Point Shooting % 39.8% 52.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 25.5 15.3
3 Point Shooting % 32.4% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 10.6 12.9
Free Throws Attempted 15.1 18.6
Free Throw % 70.2% 69.5%
Ball Control ARST APP
Rebounds 40.1 41.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 32.0
Rebounds - Offensive 14.0 9.9
Turnovers 8.0 8.1
Blocked Shots 3.5 7.1
Steals 5.1 4.9
Fouls 14.2 11.0

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARST APP
Total Possessions 72.9
Effective Scoring Chances 79.0 74.7
% of Possessions with ARST APP
2 Point Attempt 50.6% 57.5%
3 Point Attempt 28.5% 18.2%
Player Fouled 15.1% 19.5%
Turnover 10.9% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARST APP
Shot Blocked 11.3% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 30.5% 27.5%