NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARST GSU
Points 83.1 77.8
Total Points   160.9
Points From 2-Pointers 39.5 45.4
Points From 3-Pointers 26.6 18.9
Points From Free Throws 17.0 13.6
Shooting ARST GSU
Field Goals Made 28.6 29.0
Field Goals Attempted 65.5 64.8
Field Goal % 43.7% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.8 22.7
2 Pointers Attempted 36.8 46.8
2 Point Shooting % 53.7% 48.4%
3 Pointers Made 8.9 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 28.6 18.0
3 Point Shooting % 31.0% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 17.0 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 24.2 18.1
Free Throw % 70.2% 75.0%
Ball Control ARST GSU
Rebounds 43.6 35.1
Rebounds - Defensive 28.6 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 15.0 9.2
Turnovers 7.6 7.3
Blocked Shots 4.9 3.4
Steals 4.1 4.3
Fouls 14.1 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARST GSU
Total Possessions 72.8
Effective Scoring Chances 80.2 74.8
% of Possessions with ARST GSU
2 Point Attempt 41.3% 55.7%
3 Point Attempt 32.1% 21.4%
Player Fouled 20.3% 19.4%
Turnover 10.4% 10.0%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARST GSU
Shot Blocked 5.4% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 36.7% 24.4%