NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARST ULL
Points 76.9 77.3
Total Points   154.2
Points From 2-Pointers 40.0 46.5
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 17.1
Points From Free Throws 16.8 13.8
Shooting ARST ULL
Field Goals Made 26.7 28.9
Field Goals Attempted 60.3 63.5
Field Goal % 44.3% 45.6%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 23.3
2 Pointers Attempted 36.7 45.9
2 Point Shooting % 54.5% 50.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 17.5
3 Point Shooting % 28.4% 32.4%
Free Throws Made 16.8 13.8
Free Throws Attempted 24.0 18.7
Free Throw % 70.2% 73.6%
Ball Control ARST ULL
Rebounds 40.0 34.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 23.9
Rebounds - Offensive 13.6 10.4
Turnovers 11.2 8.9
Blocked Shots 4.5 4.3
Steals 5.1 6.8
Fouls 14.4 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Louisiana

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARST ULL
Total Possessions 72.8
Effective Scoring Chances 75.2 74.3
% of Possessions with ARST ULL
2 Point Attempt 41.7% 54.0%
3 Point Attempt 26.8% 20.6%
Player Fouled 20.7% 19.8%
Turnover 15.4% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARST ULL
Shot Blocked 7.0% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 36.2% 28.2%