NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARST MRSH
Points 80.2 74.9
Total Points   155.1
Points From 2-Pointers 36.7 40.8
Points From 3-Pointers 29.3 21.6
Points From Free Throws 14.3 12.5
Shooting ARST MRSH
Field Goals Made 28.1 27.6
Field Goals Attempted 65.3 65.1
Field Goal % 43.0% 42.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 20.4
2 Pointers Attempted 38.9 44.2
2 Point Shooting % 47.1% 46.1%
3 Pointers Made 9.8 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 26.4 20.9
3 Point Shooting % 37.0% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 14.3 12.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.4 17.5
Free Throw % 70.2% 71.7%
Ball Control ARST MRSH
Rebounds 42.6 37.7
Rebounds - Defensive 29.5 27.1
Rebounds - Offensive 13.1 10.5
Turnovers 9.3 8.5
Blocked Shots 3.2 4.9
Steals 5.1 6.0
Fouls 13.6 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARST MRSH
Total Possessions 73.6
Effective Scoring Chances 77.4 75.6
% of Possessions with ARST MRSH
2 Point Attempt 43.9% 51.8%
3 Point Attempt 29.7% 24.5%
Player Fouled 18.4% 18.5%
Turnover 12.6% 11.6%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARST MRSH
Shot Blocked 7.6% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 32.6% 26.3%