NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARST MEM
Points 80.4 84.8
Total Points   165.2
Points From 2-Pointers 32.5 46.6
Points From 3-Pointers 34.9 20.6
Points From Free Throws 13.0 17.6
Shooting ARST MEM
Field Goals Made 27.9 30.1
Field Goals Attempted 67.3 62.1
Field Goal % 41.4% 48.5%
2 Pointers Made 16.3 23.3
2 Pointers Attempted 34.3 43.4
2 Point Shooting % 47.4% 53.6%
3 Pointers Made 11.6 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 33.1 18.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 36.7%
Free Throws Made 13.0 17.6
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 24.3
Free Throw % 70.2% 72.7%
Ball Control ARST MEM
Rebounds 39.4 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 15.6 11.4
Turnovers 10.9 9.5
Blocked Shots 5.3 5.2
Steals 4.9 7.2
Fouls 16.6 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARST MEM
Total Possessions 74.2
Effective Scoring Chances 78.8 76.2
% of Possessions with ARST MEM
2 Point Attempt 37.3% 49.5%
3 Point Attempt 36.0% 21.3%
Player Fouled 18.2% 22.3%
Turnover 14.7% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARST MEM
Shot Blocked 8.6% 8.1%
Offensive Rebound 37.1% 32.4%