NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ILST CIN
Points 59.7 74.5
Total Points   134.2
Points From 2-Pointers 30.6 42.5
Points From 3-Pointers 16.1 21.9
Points From Free Throws 12.9 10.1
Shooting ILST CIN
Field Goals Made 20.7 28.6
Field Goals Attempted 55.0 61.2
Field Goal % 37.6% 46.6%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 21.2
2 Pointers Attempted 36.2 37.9
2 Point Shooting % 42.3% 56.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 18.8 23.3
3 Point Shooting % 28.6% 31.4%
Free Throws Made 12.9 10.1
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 14.7
Free Throw % 73.0% 68.9%
Ball Control ILST CIN
Rebounds 30.7 40.9
Rebounds - Defensive 22.4 28.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 12.9
Turnovers 10.4 9.0
Blocked Shots 1.9 5.2
Steals 4.7 4.9
Fouls 12.8 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ILST CIN
Total Possessions 67.2
Effective Scoring Chances 65.1 71.0
% of Possessions with ILST CIN
2 Point Attempt 46.7% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 24.2% 28.8%
Player Fouled 20.9% 19.1%
Turnover 15.5% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ILST CIN
Shot Blocked 8.5% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 22.9% 36.5%