NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ILST BEL
Points 67.2 72.9
Total Points   140.1
Points From 2-Pointers 35.8 35.0
Points From 3-Pointers 18.2 26.8
Points From Free Throws 13.2 11.1
Shooting ILST BEL
Field Goals Made 24.0 26.4
Field Goals Attempted 57.0 56.1
Field Goal % 42.1% 47.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 35.3 30.4
2 Point Shooting % 50.7% 57.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 8.9
3 Pointers Attempted 21.7 25.6
3 Point Shooting % 28.0% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 13.2 11.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.1 15.2
Free Throw % 73.0% 73.1%
Ball Control ILST BEL
Rebounds 35.0 32.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 6.6
Turnovers 10.3 10.1
Blocked Shots 2.1 2.7
Steals 5.4 5.4
Fouls 14.2 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ILST BEL
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 68.3 65.3
% of Possessions with ILST BEL
2 Point Attempt 44.3% 39.9%
3 Point Attempt 27.2% 33.6%
Player Fouled 21.6% 20.7%
Turnover 15.0% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken ILST BEL
Shot Blocked 4.9% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 27.5% 20.8%