NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ILST L-IL
Points 61.4 69.4
Total Points   130.8
Points From 2-Pointers 30.0 35.0
Points From 3-Pointers 15.4 23.2
Points From Free Throws 16.0 11.2
Shooting ILST L-IL
Field Goals Made 20.2 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 52.4 55.0
Field Goal % 38.5% 45.9%
2 Pointers Made 15.0 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 34.4 31.6
2 Point Shooting % 43.7% 55.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 18.0 23.5
3 Point Shooting % 28.5% 33.0%
Free Throws Made 16.0 11.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 16.5
Free Throw % 73.0% 67.6%
Ball Control ILST L-IL
Rebounds 32.9 34.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 8.2
Turnovers 10.9 10.6
Blocked Shots 2.7 5.1
Steals 5.1 5.5
Fouls 15.1 18.7

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ILST L-IL
Total Possessions 67.6
Effective Scoring Chances 65.1 65.2
% of Possessions with ILST L-IL
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 41.0%
3 Point Attempt 23.1% 30.5%
Player Fouled 27.7% 22.3%
Turnover 16.2% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken ILST L-IL
Shot Blocked 9.5% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 25.2%