NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SEMO MOSU
Points 60.0 79.6
Total Points   139.7
Points From 2-Pointers 33.8 46.3
Points From 3-Pointers 17.2 15.0
Points From Free Throws 9.0 18.4
Shooting SEMO MOSU
Field Goals Made 22.6 28.1
Field Goals Attempted 64.7 55.4
Field Goal % 35.0% 50.8%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 23.2
2 Pointers Attempted 43.7 38.4
2 Point Shooting % 38.6% 60.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 5.0
3 Pointers Attempted 21.0 17.0
3 Point Shooting % 27.4% 29.3%
Free Throws Made 9.0 18.4
Free Throws Attempted 12.8 26.1
Free Throw % 70.6% 70.3%
Ball Control SEMO MOSU
Rebounds 31.0 44.2
Rebounds - Defensive 21.4 33.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 10.3
Turnovers 8.9 10.1
Blocked Shots 2.8 4.5
Steals 4.6 4.4
Fouls 18.0 12.5

Playing Style Advantage: Missouri St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SEMO MOSU
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 71.9 71.4
% of Possessions with SEMO MOSU
2 Point Attempt 52.9% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.4% 20.6%
Player Fouled 17.5% 25.3%
Turnover 12.5% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken SEMO MOSU
Shot Blocked 8.2% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 22.0% 32.5%