NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring M-OH BALL
Points 70.1 67.8
Total Points   137.9
Points From 2-Pointers 33.7 30.8
Points From 3-Pointers 25.1 20.5
Points From Free Throws 11.3 16.5
Shooting M-OH BALL
Field Goals Made 25.2 22.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 53.3
Field Goal % 44.0% 41.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.8 15.4
2 Pointers Attempted 35.6 32.7
2 Point Shooting % 47.3% 47.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 20.7
3 Point Shooting % 38.5% 33.0%
Free Throws Made 11.3 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 15.7 21.2
Free Throw % 71.5% 77.8%
Ball Control M-OH BALL
Rebounds 32.1 35.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 27.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 8.5
Turnovers 10.1 11.9
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.9
Steals 6.4 4.9
Fouls 17.0 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: Miami (OH)

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats M-OH BALL
Total Possessions 69.8
Effective Scoring Chances 66.8 66.4
% of Possessions with M-OH BALL
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 41.1%
3 Point Attempt 27.9% 26.0%
Player Fouled 20.4% 24.4%
Turnover 14.5% 17.1%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken M-OH BALL
Shot Blocked 5.5% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 20.5% 25.3%