NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring M-OH INST
Points 67.2 81.9
Total Points   149.2
Points From 2-Pointers 33.3 35.4
Points From 3-Pointers 23.6 30.5
Points From Free Throws 10.3 16.0
Shooting M-OH INST
Field Goals Made 24.5 27.9
Field Goals Attempted 58.2 55.8
Field Goal % 42.2% 50.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 17.7
2 Pointers Attempted 36.9 27.1
2 Point Shooting % 45.2% 65.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 10.2
3 Pointers Attempted 21.3 28.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.9% 35.4%
Free Throws Made 10.3 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 14.4 19.8
Free Throw % 71.5% 80.7%
Ball Control M-OH INST
Rebounds 28.4 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 30.3
Rebounds - Offensive 5.6 7.1
Turnovers 10.2 11.0
Blocked Shots 2.8 1.7
Steals 5.7 5.8
Fouls 15.8 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Miami (OH)

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats M-OH INST
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 67.7
% of Possessions with M-OH INST
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 33.9%
3 Point Attempt 27.4% 35.9%
Player Fouled 21.2% 22.0%
Turnover 14.3% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken M-OH INST
Shot Blocked 3.2% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 15.6% 23.8%