NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SEMO TNST
Points 65.7 73.8
Total Points   139.5
Points From 2-Pointers 35.9 39.3
Points From 3-Pointers 15.1 13.1
Points From Free Throws 14.7 21.4
Shooting SEMO TNST
Field Goals Made 23.0 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 57.4 49.9
Field Goal % 40.0% 48.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 39.6 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 45.2% 56.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 4.4
3 Pointers Attempted 17.8 14.8
3 Point Shooting % 28.3% 29.4%
Free Throws Made 14.7 21.4
Free Throws Attempted 20.9 28.1
Free Throw % 70.6% 76.1%
Ball Control SEMO TNST
Rebounds 31.9 35.7
Rebounds - Defensive 21.5 27.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 8.3
Turnovers 11.6 12.8
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.3
Steals 5.7 6.1
Fouls 19.5 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: TN State

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SEMO TNST
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 70.4 67.1
% of Possessions with SEMO TNST
2 Point Attempt 47.6% 43.3%
3 Point Attempt 21.3% 18.3%
Player Fouled 23.8% 27.3%
Turnover 16.2% 17.8%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken SEMO TNST
Shot Blocked 6.7% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 27.5% 27.9%