NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMBC ME
Points 72.7 71.7
Total Points   144.4
Points From 2-Pointers 43.9 41.6
Points From 3-Pointers 19.4 18.8
Points From Free Throws 9.3 11.3
Shooting UMBC ME
Field Goals Made 28.4 27.1
Field Goals Attempted 61.2 64.1
Field Goal % 46.4% 42.3%
2 Pointers Made 22.0 20.8
2 Pointers Attempted 41.9 42.1
2 Point Shooting % 52.4% 49.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 22.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 28.5%
Free Throws Made 9.3 11.3
Free Throws Attempted 13.7 15.8
Free Throw % 67.9% 71.4%
Ball Control UMBC ME
Rebounds 38.8 35.6
Rebounds - Defensive 30.7 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 8.6
Turnovers 12.9 9.7
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.0
Steals 4.3 8.9
Fouls 12.5 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Maine

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMBC ME
Total Possessions 74.6
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 73.5
% of Possessions with UMBC ME
2 Point Attempt 50.0% 49.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.0% 26.0%
Player Fouled 17.9% 16.8%
Turnover 17.3% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 12.0% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMBC ME
Shot Blocked 4.7% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 23.0% 21.9%