NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMBC DEL
Points 74.9 78.6
Total Points   153.5
Points From 2-Pointers 44.6 44.9
Points From 3-Pointers 22.1 21.1
Points From Free Throws 8.2 12.5
Shooting UMBC DEL
Field Goals Made 29.7 29.5
Field Goals Attempted 64.0 64.9
Field Goal % 46.4% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 22.3 22.4
2 Pointers Attempted 42.0 41.5
2 Point Shooting % 53.1% 54.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 22.0 23.5
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 30.0%
Free Throws Made 8.2 12.5
Free Throws Attempted 12.1 17.8
Free Throw % 67.9% 70.4%
Ball Control UMBC DEL
Rebounds 35.2 39.2
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 29.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.4 10.3
Turnovers 10.2 9.1
Blocked Shots 4.1 2.5
Steals 4.3 6.0
Fouls 12.9 12.0

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland BC

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMBC DEL
Total Possessions 74.2
Effective Scoring Chances 71.3 75.4
% of Possessions with UMBC DEL
2 Point Attempt 50.8% 48.1%
3 Point Attempt 26.7% 27.3%
Player Fouled 16.2% 17.3%
Turnover 13.8% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMBC DEL
Shot Blocked 4.0% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 20.3% 27.0%