NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMBC
Points 81.5 64.2
Total Points   145.7
Points From 2-Pointers 45.3 33.9
Points From 3-Pointers 27.4 23.5
Points From Free Throws 8.9 6.8
Shooting UMBC
Field Goals Made 31.8 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 62.2 62.6
Field Goal % 51.1% 39.6%
2 Pointers Made 22.6 16.9
2 Pointers Attempted 39.8 35.2
2 Point Shooting % 56.8% 48.2%
3 Pointers Made 9.1 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 22.3 27.4
3 Point Shooting % 40.9% 28.6%
Free Throws Made 8.9 6.8
Free Throws Attempted 13.0 11.1
Free Throw % 67.9% 60.7%
Ball Control UMBC
Rebounds 39.3 33.2
Rebounds - Defensive 30.9 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 9.1
Turnovers 11.1 12.2
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.2
Steals 4.7 6.6
Fouls 11.1 12.6

Playing Style Advantage:

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMBC
Total Possessions 72.8
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 69.7
% of Possessions with UMBC
2 Point Attempt 48.3% 42.3%
3 Point Attempt 27.1% 32.9%
Player Fouled 17.2% 15.3%
Turnover 15.2% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMBC
Shot Blocked 5.1% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 25.9% 22.7%