NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMBC NJIT
Points 79.4 72.7
Total Points   152.1
Points From 2-Pointers 43.5 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 24.2 24.5
Points From Free Throws 11.7 12.5
Shooting UMBC NJIT
Field Goals Made 29.8 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 61.8 68.3
Field Goal % 48.3% 38.1%
2 Pointers Made 21.8 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 39.4 40.0
2 Point Shooting % 55.3% 44.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 22.4 28.3
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 28.9%
Free Throws Made 11.7 12.5
Free Throws Attempted 17.2 17.4
Free Throw % 67.9% 72.1%
Ball Control UMBC NJIT
Rebounds 40.2 39.5
Rebounds - Defensive 31.5 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 13.2
Turnovers 11.0 8.8
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.0
Steals 3.8 7.5
Fouls 12.0 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland BC

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMBC NJIT
Total Possessions 74.5
Effective Scoring Chances 72.3 79.0
% of Possessions with UMBC NJIT
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 44.9%
3 Point Attempt 26.5% 31.7%
Player Fouled 20.6% 16.1%
Turnover 14.7% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 10.1% 5.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMBC NJIT
Shot Blocked 4.4% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 29.6%