NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMBC GTWN
Points 81.0 84.5
Total Points   165.6
Points From 2-Pointers 46.5 39.2
Points From 3-Pointers 24.5 29.4
Points From Free Throws 10.0 15.9
Shooting UMBC GTWN
Field Goals Made 31.4 29.4
Field Goals Attempted 61.3 66.9
Field Goal % 51.3% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made 23.3 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 38.9 38.4
2 Point Shooting % 59.8% 51.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 9.8
3 Pointers Attempted 22.4 28.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 10.0 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 14.7 22.0
Free Throw % 67.9% 72.0%
Ball Control UMBC GTWN
Rebounds 32.7 40.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 15.3
Turnovers 11.4 9.0
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.0
Steals 4.4 6.4
Fouls 13.9 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland BC

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMBC GTWN
Total Possessions 74.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 80.7
% of Possessions with UMBC GTWN
2 Point Attempt 47.0% 42.2%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 31.3%
Player Fouled 18.4% 18.7%
Turnover 15.4% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMBC GTWN
Shot Blocked 4.6% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 22.5% 37.6%