NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMBC GTWN
Points 81.2 84.3
Total Points   165.4
Points From 2-Pointers 46.7 39.1
Points From 3-Pointers 24.4 29.5
Points From Free Throws 10.0 15.7
Shooting UMBC GTWN
Field Goals Made 31.5 29.4
Field Goals Attempted 61.4 66.9
Field Goal % 51.3% 43.9%
2 Pointers Made 23.3 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 39.0 38.3
2 Point Shooting % 59.8% 51.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 9.8
3 Pointers Attempted 22.4 28.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.4% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 10.0 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 14.7 21.9
Free Throw % 67.9% 72.0%
Ball Control UMBC GTWN
Rebounds 32.9 40.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.6 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 15.2
Turnovers 11.4 9.0
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.0
Steals 4.5 6.3
Fouls 13.9 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland BC

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMBC GTWN
Total Possessions 74.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.3 80.5
% of Possessions with UMBC GTWN
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 42.2%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 31.4%
Player Fouled 18.3% 18.7%
Turnover 15.3% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMBC GTWN
Shot Blocked 4.6% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 22.6% 37.3%