NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMBC CLMB
Points 80.7 81.5
Total Points   162.2
Points From 2-Pointers 45.7 41.2
Points From 3-Pointers 26.2 28.1
Points From Free Throws 8.9 12.2
Shooting UMBC CLMB
Field Goals Made 31.6 30.0
Field Goals Attempted 63.6 66.4
Field Goal % 49.6% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 22.8 20.6
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 39.9
2 Point Shooting % 57.8% 51.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.7 9.4
3 Pointers Attempted 24.0 26.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 35.4%
Free Throws Made 8.9 12.2
Free Throws Attempted 13.0 17.1
Free Throw % 67.9% 71.3%
Ball Control UMBC CLMB
Rebounds 35.5 37.6
Rebounds - Defensive 27.6 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 11.2
Turnovers 11.6 10.2
Blocked Shots 4.5 2.2
Steals 4.2 7.8
Fouls 12.5 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland BC

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMBC CLMB
Total Possessions 75.5
Effective Scoring Chances 71.8 76.5
% of Possessions with UMBC CLMB
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 45.1%
3 Point Attempt 28.5% 29.9%
Player Fouled 17.7% 16.5%
Turnover 15.4% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 10.3% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMBC CLMB
Shot Blocked 3.3% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 23.1% 28.9%