NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMBC MASS
Points 71.4 85.9
Total Points   157.3
Points From 2-Pointers 38.0 48.2
Points From 3-Pointers 22.8 22.7
Points From Free Throws 10.5 15.0
Shooting UMBC MASS
Field Goals Made 26.6 31.7
Field Goals Attempted 61.4 69.0
Field Goal % 43.3% 45.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 24.1
2 Pointers Attempted 39.2 43.7
2 Point Shooting % 48.5% 55.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.2 25.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 29.9%
Free Throws Made 10.5 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 15.5 22.0
Free Throw % 67.9% 68.2%
Ball Control UMBC MASS
Rebounds 33.3 45.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 29.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 16.4
Turnovers 12.7 8.8
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.0
Steals 3.9 8.2
Fouls 14.0 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: U Mass

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMBC MASS
Total Possessions 75.4
Effective Scoring Chances 71.1 83.0
% of Possessions with UMBC MASS
2 Point Attempt 46.1% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 26.2% 27.2%
Player Fouled 19.3% 18.6%
Turnover 16.9% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 10.9% 5.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMBC MASS
Shot Blocked 4.4% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 22.4% 39.8%