NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMBC PITT
Points 66.3 87.5
Total Points   153.9
Points From 2-Pointers 36.0 41.2
Points From 3-Pointers 22.1 32.6
Points From Free Throws 8.3 13.7
Shooting UMBC PITT
Field Goals Made 25.3 31.5
Field Goals Attempted 60.3 69.2
Field Goal % 42.1% 45.5%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 20.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.6 38.7
2 Point Shooting % 49.1% 53.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 10.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 30.5
3 Point Shooting % 31.1% 35.6%
Free Throws Made 8.3 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 12.2 18.8
Free Throw % 67.9% 73.0%
Ball Control UMBC PITT
Rebounds 32.8 44.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.6 30.4
Rebounds - Offensive 6.2 13.9
Turnovers 12.3 6.4
Blocked Shots 2.7 4.7
Steals 2.8 7.7
Fouls 13.3 12.4

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland BC

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMBC PITT
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 80.6
% of Possessions with UMBC PITT
2 Point Attempt 45.1% 43.9%
3 Point Attempt 29.1% 34.6%
Player Fouled 16.9% 18.2%
Turnover 16.8% 8.7%
Opponent Steal 10.6% 3.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMBC PITT
Shot Blocked 6.8% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 16.9% 34.3%