NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMBC LSU
Points 73.0 87.8
Total Points   160.8
Points From 2-Pointers 38.2 45.2
Points From 3-Pointers 25.3 26.9
Points From Free Throws 9.5 15.8
Shooting UMBC LSU
Field Goals Made 27.5 31.5
Field Goals Attempted 63.0 66.6
Field Goal % 43.7% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 19.1 22.6
2 Pointers Attempted 38.1 41.4
2 Point Shooting % 50.2% 54.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 24.9 25.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.9% 35.6%
Free Throws Made 9.5 15.8
Free Throws Attempted 13.9 21.6
Free Throw % 67.9% 73.3%
Ball Control UMBC LSU
Rebounds 32.8 43.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 30.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 12.9
Turnovers 13.2 9.9
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.7
Steals 4.8 9.0
Fouls 13.4 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: LSU

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMBC LSU
Total Possessions 76.9
Effective Scoring Chances 71.3 80.0
% of Possessions with UMBC LSU
2 Point Attempt 44.3% 45.5%
3 Point Attempt 28.9% 27.6%
Player Fouled 16.9% 17.4%
Turnover 17.1% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 11.7% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMBC LSU
Shot Blocked 5.6% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 20.2% 33.9%