NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMASS UVM
Points 68.6 71.1
Total Points   139.7
Points From 2-Pointers 36.9 36.0
Points From 3-Pointers 16.3 22.8
Points From Free Throws 15.4 12.3
Shooting UMASS UVM
Field Goals Made 23.9 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 61.3
Field Goal % 41.3% 41.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 40.7 36.8
2 Point Shooting % 45.4% 48.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 17.2 24.5
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 31.0%
Free Throws Made 15.4 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 17.1
Free Throw % 74.3% 71.9%
Ball Control UMASS UVM
Rebounds 39.3 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 29.9 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 8.0
Turnovers 10.3 8.1
Blocked Shots 4.7 4.9
Steals 5.0 6.6
Fouls 13.6 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Mass Lowell

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMASS UVM
Total Possessions 70.8
Effective Scoring Chances 69.9 70.7
% of Possessions with UMASS UVM
2 Point Attempt 49.4% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 20.9% 30.4%
Player Fouled 20.8% 19.2%
Turnover 14.6% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMASS UVM
Shot Blocked 8.2% 8.3%
Offensive Rebound 25.9% 21.0%