NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMASS SF
Points 67.0 79.1
Total Points   146.1
Points From 2-Pointers 31.1 47.0
Points From 3-Pointers 16.2 21.2
Points From Free Throws 19.7 10.9
Shooting UMASS SF
Field Goals Made 21.0 30.6
Field Goals Attempted 50.8 65.0
Field Goal % 41.3% 47.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.6 23.5
2 Pointers Attempted 34.8 42.1
2 Point Shooting % 44.8% 55.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 16.0 23.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 30.7%
Free Throws Made 19.7 10.9
Free Throws Attempted 26.5 14.7
Free Throw % 74.3% 74.2%
Ball Control UMASS SF
Rebounds 33.1 36.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 11.0
Turnovers 14.3 9.7
Blocked Shots 2.3 5.1
Steals 5.1 9.4
Fouls 12.9 18.9

Playing Style Advantage: San Francisco

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMASS SF
Total Possessions 73.2
Effective Scoring Chances 66.4 74.5
% of Possessions with UMASS SF
2 Point Attempt 42.0% 49.4%
3 Point Attempt 19.4% 27.0%
Player Fouled 25.9% 17.6%
Turnover 19.6% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 12.9% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMASS SF
Shot Blocked 7.9% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 22.7% 30.1%