NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMASS
Points 80.8 59.7
Total Points   140.4
Points From 2-Pointers 44.2 34.4
Points From 3-Pointers 19.8 18.4
Points From Free Throws 16.7 6.9
Shooting UMASS
Field Goals Made 28.7 23.3
Field Goals Attempted 57.2 60.0
Field Goal % 50.2% 38.8%
2 Pointers Made 22.1 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 40.0 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 55.2% 45.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 17.2 22.6
3 Point Shooting % 38.4% 27.1%
Free Throws Made 16.7 6.9
Free Throws Attempted 22.5 11.4
Free Throw % 74.3% 60.7%
Ball Control UMASS
Rebounds 41.6 28.8
Rebounds - Defensive 30.6 20.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 8.2
Turnovers 11.5 12.6
Blocked Shots 3.9 4.3
Steals 6.7 6.7
Fouls 11.8 15.6

Playing Style Advantage:

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMASS
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 71.0 67.0
% of Possessions with UMASS
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 46.2%
3 Point Attempt 20.5% 27.8%
Player Fouled 21.9% 16.5%
Turnover 16.1% 17.7%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMASS
Shot Blocked 7.4% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 35.0% 21.2%